CME predictions

Whenever a CME goes off, it is possible from some of the data received from different solar observatories (especially the space-based ones) to predict the path of the ejected material. As part of our update on this particular event (which is of particular interest to us as we will be observing it!), we have included some simulation results from


The following is from the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Physics Branch

H3DMHD predict CME (March 15, 2013, 06:54: COR2A/B) driven shock will arrive at Earth at 00UT on March 17, 2013.

Estimated speed of CME from COR2 of STEREO-A/B is ~1000 km/s.

Source region of this CME located at N09W02.



Here are some links to the animations from the simulation results.


CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/D_S7_1000km_N09W02.gif
CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/V_S7_1000km_N09W02.gif
CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/V_W0_1000km_N09W02.gif
CME_20130315_1000km_N09W02/D_W0_1000km_N09W02.gif

Thanks to RAL Space for bring these to our attention!

Coronal Mass Ejection

We may be in for a bit of a solar storm soon. A recent coronal mass ejection (CME) has been predicted as being on a direct impact with the earth, sometime in the next 24 hours. As a result, we could be in for some interesting auroral displays. Certainly KAIRA will be operating throughout this time as part of its ongoing riometry project. We also hope to obtain some EISCAT data too.

We know about CMEs typically from solar observatories. Although the material that is ejected from the sun is moving extremely quickly, it still can take a couple of days to reach the earth.

A recent coronal mass ejection (CME). Image: LASCO C2 / SOHO.

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is a camera on the SOHO spacecraft. It uses a block (occulter) to obscure the sun itself, thus allowing the camera to be more sensitive to the fainter material that is streaming out as part of the solar wind. The size of the sun's disc is indicated by the white circle.The radial line features are coronal streamers. The blast of material is the coronal mass ejection and it can be seen being expelled away from the Sun. This image shows the inner solar corona up to 8.4 million kilometers (5.25 million miles) away from the Sun.

We will post up more information as the weekend goes on to report on anything interesting that we find!

Link:  SOHO website

CME to coincide with KAIRA/EISCAT observations?

It looks like we may be up for some interesting solar activity soon. And, as luck would have it, we have dual KAIRA/EISCAT observations scheduled for that time. A perfect opportunity to test some of our new riometry experiments.

Here is one of the first reports we received. And it really looks like the BBC's Shipping Forecast, no?

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0709UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with a long duration 
M1 flare from region AR1692(N09E06) peaking around 07UT. A halo 
CME was observed in association with this event in SOHO/LASCO 
coronagraphs. Combined with STEREO coronagraph imagery, analysis 
suggests that the main part of the CME appears to be directed 
to the east and north, however a significant amount of the material 
is likely directed towards the Earth. This is expected to arrive 
late on the 16th of March or early on the 17th UT. A weak shock 
was seen in the ACE solar wind data just before 05UT on the 15th 
of March, most likely the arrival of the CME observed on the 
12th of March. The solar wind speed peaked just below 500 km/s 
before diminishing to around 450 km/s. The IMF Bz component went 
as low as -10nT for less than an hour before swinging northward 
for the remainder of the day. More significant solar wind speeds, 
potentially up to around 800 km/s, are expected following the 
arrival of the CME observed on the 15th. Solar activity is expected 
to be low to moderate for the next 3 days, with some chance of 
further M class flare activity.