Saturday, 16 March 2013

CME to coincide with KAIRA/EISCAT observations?

It looks like we may be up for some interesting solar activity soon. And, as luck would have it, we have dual KAIRA/EISCAT observations scheduled for that time. A perfect opportunity to test some of our new riometry experiments.

Here is one of the first reports we received. And it really looks like the BBC's Shipping Forecast, no?


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0709UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with a long duration 
M1 flare from region AR1692(N09E06) peaking around 07UT. A halo 
CME was observed in association with this event in SOHO/LASCO 
coronagraphs. Combined with STEREO coronagraph imagery, analysis 
suggests that the main part of the CME appears to be directed 
to the east and north, however a significant amount of the material 
is likely directed towards the Earth. This is expected to arrive 
late on the 16th of March or early on the 17th UT. A weak shock 
was seen in the ACE solar wind data just before 05UT on the 15th 
of March, most likely the arrival of the CME observed on the 
12th of March. The solar wind speed peaked just below 500 km/s 
before diminishing to around 450 km/s. The IMF Bz component went 
as low as -10nT for less than an hour before swinging northward 
for the remainder of the day. More significant solar wind speeds, 
potentially up to around 800 km/s, are expected following the 
arrival of the CME observed on the 15th. Solar activity is expected 
to be low to moderate for the next 3 days, with some chance of 
further M class flare activity.

2 comments: